Network techs need to prep for Christmas Day footbalypse

Netflix is planning to live stream two NFL games on Christmas Day. The nation's telecom network engineers are going to have to be ready because there's a good chance that day will be the busiest ever on the Internet, at least in the US.

"There are no live annual events, sports or otherwise, that compare with the audiences NFL football attracts. We're so excited that the NFL's Christmas Day games will be only on Netflix," Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria said in a release.

Indeed, Comcast said in January that its live stream of a Dolphins-Chiefs game then was "the largest Internet event ever, consuming 30% of Internet traffic during the game."

Comcast streamed that game on its Peacock video service, which today counts around 34 million customers in the US (viewership of the game on Peacock reached roughly 16.3 million, according to Comcast).

"Our entire company worked seamlessly to plan for this game and executed flawlessly to deliver a streaming experience with the NFL on a scale that's never been done before. It's a very proud moment," Comcast CEO Brian Roberts said at the time.  

Comcast is by far the nation's biggest Internet provider, with roughly 32 million customers in the US. Netflix, meanwhile, counts around 80 million customers in the US.

Thus, it's reasonable to assume that Netflix's bigger audience, coupled with the high-profile nature of the NFL's Christmas Day games, will generate far more traffic than Peacock's foray into live streamed football.

Potential network impact

Netflix's NFL plans could have significant implications for the Internet in the US.

According to network-monitoring company Sandvine, live streaming accounted for 18% of all Internet traffic in the Americas in 2023, generating around 2 gigabytes per day per subscriber. Presumably those figures will be much higher in 2024, thanks in part to the NFL's move onto the Internet.

Separately, network-testing company Ookla offers a look at how US networks might handle NFL games. The firm reported that in April fixed networks in the US provided median download speeds of almost 250 Mbit/s and latency of 13 milliseconds. Mobile networks, meanwhile, provided median download speeds of around 125 Mbit/s and latency of almost 30ms.

That's plenty fast for Netflix's minimum speed requirements of 15 Mbit/s for ultra high definition broadcasts. 

However, it's unclear how download speeds might be affected by millions of NFL fans logging into their Netflix accounts on Christmas Day all at the same time, given that telecom networks are a shared resource. Indeed, that's why Comcast, T-Mobile and others implement monthly Internet usage caps.

The warnings

Recent precedent highlights some concerns. During the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic – when many Americans were working and schooling from home – companies including Microsoft, Sony and Akamai said they would take steps to reduce the amount of online traffic that video games generate during peak usage hours.

"This approach will help ensure every Internet user and consumer continues to have the high-quality experience they expect across all of their Internet services, and that gamers will still get the download they want, though it may take longer than usual during peak usage times," explained Akamai CEO Tom Leighton at the time.

In Europe, the situation was even more acute. Netflix and YouTube agreed to throttle their services there amid concerns that pandemic-related traffic could overwhelm some networks.

But it's unlikely US football fans will see that kind of draconian network management on Christmas Day. US network engineers are getting more than six months of prep time. And they're quickly getting familiar with Netflix-level streaming events, such as the recent roast of retired football player Tom Brady.

Keeping up with demand

Nonetheless, it's clear that Internet traffic growth shows no signs of slowing, and network operators will need to remain ahead of the cultural zeitgeist.

But they've been doing that for years now. It's how Cox Communications kept pace in 2012 with demand for the Gangnam Style YouTube video from rapper Psy and how Verizon adapted in 2020 amid the meteoric rise of TikTok. And it's what operators across the globe did during the pandemic when all 100 GB of the video game "Call of Duty: Warzone" threatened to overwhelm networks that were already struggling.

The only real difference might be whether Netflix's Christmas Day plans will generate any holiday overtime pay among network techs.