IDC: Clock Is Ticking on 3G

LONDON -- Today, there is a greater focus than ever on mobile data and next-generation networks, but operators must now deliver before it is too late. The industry wants to look forward, but issues persist to hamper the market. If these issues are quickly resolved then it will be payday for the operators. According to a recent study by IDC, mobile operator data services revenue (traffic and data applications) is set to increase from $12.2 billion in 2002 to $34.9 billion in 2006."Networks are in place but operators have not extensively marketed packet-based services," said Paolo Pescatore, Senior Analyst from IDC's European Mobile and Wireless Communications service. "Fundamentally, operators have to market these services to start educating users and making the migration towards UMTS as seamless as possible."GPRS is here, but the situation has not changed much from last year. "There was and still is a lot of promise of GPRS but a lack of marketing of services has meant a delay in take-up," said Pescatore. "In Europe, most operators are offering GPRS services, which were initially marketed at corporate users but are now being offered to consumers. However, what we have seen is a lack of interest or no consumer demand for it."With UMTS, no one could have envisaged the problems operators were due to face. No operator has launched commercial UMTS services except for the small (MM02) operation in the Isle of Man. Following big auctions in the UK and then in Germany, governments have been unable to attract enough bidders, resulting in lower proceeds and operators requesting to share network infrastructure and delay in the roll-out of networks.In the mbrowser space interesting developments are shaping the market. One is WAP vs i-Mode. There is certainly a battle going on from an operator's perspective to acquire customers. Those operators deploying i-Mode will use it as a means to increase their market shares and at the same time increase usage. "The aim is not to compete with one technology or the other, but to ensure the adoption of common technical architecture and protocols," Pescatore said (see Uncovering the i-Mode Phenomenon - Lessons for Europe, 2001, (IDC #HW40H). Another is the increasing emergence of Java. "Fundamentally, Java opens up the wireless market. It allows applications to run on a number of multiple devices, which has proved to be difficult to achieve in recent years. The consumer segment represents a major opportunity as applications such as gaming and location-based services will be widely adopted."IDC